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Washington and New Delhi for years touted their relationship as one of the most fruitful in the post–Cold War world, and, by many accounts, it was: the two countries were strategic partners for over two decades, cooperating on defense and diplomatic matters at a level previously unseen. But these years of strategic alignment are now being tested as trust between the U.S. and India deteriorates, due to the introduction of tariffs, oil politics, and the growing clout of rival powers.

“It’s gone,” Evan Feigenbaum, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s South Asia chair, said bluntly of trust between Washington and New Delhi. “We’re in a situation in the U.S.-India relationship where the premises and assumptions of the last 25 years, and, in the president’s case, the first term, that he worked very hard to build in his first term, have just come completely unraveled.”

It all began earlier this year when President Donald Trump, citing India’s purchases of Russian crude despite the war in Ukraine, levied tariffs on Indian imports that began at 25 percent and are set to increase to 50 percent come August 27. Rather than force India to wean itself off Russian oil, the tariffs have driven New Delhi to Moscow and even Beijing.

In recent weeks, India’s national security adviser visited Moscow, Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar held “comprehensive talks,” and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi concluded a series of meetings in New Delhi. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is about to make his first trip to China in over seven years, while Russian President Vladimir Putin also expects him in Moscow by the end of the year. For their part, Moscow is doubling down on courting India.

Indian public opinion has also hardened in response to what New Delhi sees as Washington’s attempt to pressure India on policy matters. “The signal they’re sending is that they view that as interference in India’s foreign policy, and they are not going to put up with it,” Feigenbaum explained.

Indian refiners had paused their purchases of Russian crude at the outset of the war in Ukraine, but after discounts of six to seven percent, state-run refiners resumed oil imports from Russia. The result has been explosive: Moscow now supplies 35 percent of India’s crude imports, up from 0.2 percent before the Ukraine war. Russia has also seized the opportunity to up its offerings. Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov said Moscow will ship not only crude oil, oil products, and thermal and coking coa,l but also that Russia sees “potential for the export of Russian LNG.”

Cause for Strategic Drift and Domestic Priorities

Indian analyst Michael Kugelman said that, while Trump’s tariffs played their part, other factors caused New Delhi’s shift, and those “have been playing out for well over a year now.”

“Right from the beginning, we saw indications for almost a year of India wanting to ease tensions with China and work on strengthening relations, largely for economic reasons. But the Trump administration’s policies and postures, I think, have made India want to move even more quickly,” the South Asia expert at the Washington-based Wilson Center said.

Some of the former are more performative than real, but other elements of India’s rapprochement with Russia have more substance, said Feigenbaum. “India is going to double down on some aspects of its economic and defense relationship with Russia — and those parts are not performative,” the analyst added.

India has long been cutting down on its purchases of Russian defense equipment in favor of American, French, and Israeli weapons. But with the war, imports of energy from Moscow have gone through the roof. Kugelman said it was “sending a signal to the United States that the U.S. can’t be trusted, whereas Russia can — because Russia is always going to be there for India no matter what.”

Domestically, Modi has been using the opportunity to burnish his image as a champion of Indian sovereignty. He has also couched his resistance to Washington as the defense of the livelihoods of farmers, small businesses, and young workers — a powerful political message in India. Modi had already made concessions to the U.S., Kugelman recalled, such as tariff cuts and allowing workers to return home. “Because of those concessions, India needs to be careful about signaling further willingness to bend. This is one reason there was no trade deal — Modi put his foot down,” the analyst said.

Feigenbaum agreed that Modi “has a great incentive to look tough on the home front, to the extent that he can get away with it.” In India, Trump’s tariffs have been viewed as “a bit like a gift to Modi because it enables him to signal this defiance of Washington.”