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Electric vehicle adoption in the United States has hit another major roadblock, as sales slow, and infrastructure challenges come into sharper focus. After more than a year of almost uninterrupted month-over-month increases, EV sales are now starting to contract. Automakers such as Genesis and Volvo have already seen customers walk away from their EV lineups, with both firms considering possible lineup cuts.

The current administration has taken measures that do not help either. This includes reducing subsidies as well as rolling back vehicle pollution regulations, resulting in less federal support for EV buyers. However, according to market researchers, there could be a bigger challenge than political headwinds, and it might be found in Americans’ garages.

Charging Where You Park

The biggest perceived hurdle to EV adoption, according to surveys for years now, has been charging. A recent market research study from Telemetry Vice President Sam Abuelsamid probes this issue, however, and raises one under-reported but significant factor: garages.

With a proliferation of headlines about building a nationwide fast-charging network, most EV charging still happens at home. AC power, usually at a single-family residence (SFR), is the dominant source of EV power in the U.S., with an estimated 80 percent of all EV charging occurring at home. And according to data from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), 42 percent of SFR owners already have their charging station in place or park near an outlet that can support level 2 (240-volt) charging.

This number has the potential to increase sharply, to 68 percent, if homeowners cleared their garages and changed their parking behavior. “Parking behavior, namely whether homeowners use a private garage for parking or storage, will likely become a key factor in EV adoption,” Abuelsamid says. “90 percent of all houses can add a 240 V outlet near where cars could be parked.”

If more homes made available garages for parking rather than storage, the number of SFRs capable of charging an EV would jump from 31 million to over 50 million. The figure would rise to over 72 million when you add in homes where installing new wiring to add a 240 V outlet is feasible. This number exceeds Telemetry’s most bullish projection of EV penetration in 2035 of between 33 million and 57 million vehicles.

On paper, it is a remarkable number, but these figures do not translate into actual, on-the-ground readiness. The NREL study, in fact, found that almost 34 million homes would have to undergo costly electrical upgrades before they can support a level 2 charger, one that typically needs at least 30 amps of power. Such upgrades, which can range from adding new wiring to entire electrical panel replacements, can run into the thousands of dollars for some homeowners.

This would eat into one of EVs’ main advantages over traditional gasoline-powered cars: cost. Long-term affordability, over time and use, is one of the reasons sales of plug-in cars are growing in the U.S. However, adding in the cost of installing charging infrastructure can rapidly make the total cost of ownership approach, and in some cases exceed, those of gas cars.

The more difficult challenge looms in multifamily housing, where 23 percent of Americans live in multifamily dwellings such as apartments, condos, and townhomes. In these residences, an individual EV owner rarely has the autonomy to install a charger. They must depend on landlords, property management companies, or even a co-op board to grant permission, something that is not always granted.

The cost barrier is also much greater. Even something that may seem as simple as adding a pair of shared level 2 chargers at a co-op may first require an entire electrical panel upgrade. For larger multi-family projects, this type of upgrade can run into the millions of dollars. Wiring from an electrical panel to distant parking spots will add to the price. In most cases, residents in multifamily housing are also not eligible for municipal or utility subsidies for charger installation.

Currently, there are about 1 million EV owners living in multifamily housing, but only 11 percent park near an outlet they can plug into. Some states have moved to mandate that 20–25 percent of parking spots be EV-ready in new developments. However, even in these cases, Telemetry estimates that there will be between 6.7 million and 11.4 million charging-capable spaces in multifamily dwellings by 2035, far short of demand.

The Public Charging Gap

With those limitations, public charging infrastructure will need to make up the difference. Telemetry projects that 11.7 million to 14.3 million EV drivers who own houses will use public charging at least sometimes by 2035. An additional 7.8 million to 8.1 million EV owners living in multifamily residences will also rely on public charging.

Meeting this need would require 523,000 to 586,000 DC fast chargers, in addition to 1.5 million to 1.6 million level 2 chargers across the country. Building this infrastructure comes with its own obstacles, as power companies are already under strain. These suppliers are also scrambling to service AI and data center developments that can gobble up generation and distribution capacity, complicating efforts to expand large-scale charging sites.

Thus, despite all the optimism in the air around EVs, the future in the U.S. may be a lot more complicated than it looks. While millions of U.S. homes can support EV charging on paper, garage clutter, high electrical upgrade costs, and multifamily living hurdles may slow down adoption. Despite robust public charging growth, demand could outstrip supply in the next decade.

For now, though, one fact is clear: the future of electric vehicles in America may rest as much in homeowners’ garages as in government policy or automaker planning.